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基于群组决策模型的西湖周边岩溶塌陷危险性区划

赵增玉1,潘 懋1,丛威青1,梁 河2,傅俊鹤2   

  1. 1. 北京大学 地球与空间科学学院,北京 100871;2. 浙江省地质调查院,杭州 311203
  • 收稿日期:2009-06-20 修回日期:2009-06-20 出版日期:2009-06-20 发布日期:2009-06-20

Karst collapse hazard zoning based on group decision-making around West Lake

ZHAO Zeng-yu1, PAN Mao1, CONG Wei-qing1, LIANG He2, FU Jun-he2   

  1. 1. School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; 2. Zhejiang Institute of Geological Survey, Hangzhou 311203, China
  • Received:2009-06-20 Revised:2009-06-20 Online:2009-06-20 Published:2009-06-20

摘要: 西湖周边岩溶塌陷危险性区划分析是杭州城市地质调查信息管理与服务系统——专业分析评价子系统中一个重要的城市地质灾害分析项。在区划模型实现过程中,提出了通过层次分析法得到各专家的因子权重,并引入群组决策模型,借助变异系数法和均值的思想,计算各专家在决策组中的决策权重,最后获取各因子的最优权值的新方法。该方法充分利用了层次分析法的权值结果,最大限度地避免了在经典群组决策中出现的部分专家赋权时的偏激行为,结果更为可信。由区划结果可知,岩溶发育程度和地质构造是影响西湖岩溶地面塌陷危险性的两个重要条件,符合大多数专家的意愿。评价结果中尽管没有发现极危险级区,但仍须对危险级和次危险级区域加以重视,尤其当用作工程地质建设场地时,应考虑到这些潜在的地质灾害因素。

Abstract: Karst collapse hazard zoning around West Lake is an important aspect of urban geological harzard analysis and evaluation, which is a part of urban geological data management and service system for the Hangzhou city. In the model of the karst collapse hazard zoning, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is introduced to get the weights of individual contributing elements, based on the advices of project geologists before group decision-making. The most compatible weights of contributing elements are obtained by considering the geologists weights during process of decision-making, based on the principle of individual analyses and coefficient variations. Weight results of AHP are fully utilized in this model, which avoids the extreme weights by a few geologists. Hence, the results seem to be more reasonable than those of the conventional method. Zoning results show that the development of karst collapse harzard and the geological structure are two main important elements that affect karst collapse hazard around the West Lake, which is quite well accepted by most of the experts. Although there is no distribution of the most risk area, the government should take attention to more susceptible and sub-susceptible area which could be potentialy hazard collapse area more seriously, especially when the area is considered as an engineering site.