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高校地质学报 ›› 2025, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (03): 375-384.DOI: 10.16108/j.issn1006-7493.2024005

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中期天气预报在洪水预报中的机遇与挑战

薛静渝   

  1. 南京大学 地球科学与工程学院,南京 210023
  • 出版日期:2025-06-17 发布日期:2025-06-17

Opportunities and Limitations of Medium Range Weather Forecasts for Flood Forecasting

XUE Jingyu   

  1. School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing Unirersity, Nanjing 210023, China
  • Online:2025-06-17 Published:2025-06-17

摘要: 随着天气预报技术和计算机技术的发展,中期天气预报与洪水预报相结合的应用日益广泛。文章通过对中期天气预报和洪水预报进行研究,分析了当前运行中的四个大陆尺度洪水预测系统在欧洲、澳大利亚和美国的应用情况,探讨了中期天气预报在洪水预报中的应用及其发展机遇和挑战。文章指出,在洪水预报中,中期天气预报面临的机遇包括观测数据日渐丰富、数据同化技术的进步,以及人工智能和机器学习等新技术的应用。但同时也面临挑战,如大气系统的不确定性、部分区域观测数据的不足、模型精度和尺度转换的限制以及集合预测方法的复杂性。未来,通过克服这些挑战,中期天气预报有望在提高洪水预报准确性方面发挥更大的作用,为防范和减轻洪水灾害提供有效支持。

关键词: 中期天气预报, 洪水预报, 集合预报系统, 数值天气预报

Abstract: Following the developments in the weather forecasting and computer technologies, the integration of medium-range weather forecasts and flood forecasting has become increasingly widespread. This paper investigates medium-range weather forecasts and flood predictions, analyzing the application of four operational continental-scale flood forecasting systems in Europe, Australia, and the United States, and explores the opportunities and challenges of using medium-range weather forecasts in flood prediction. The paper points out that the opportunities for medium-range weather forecasts include the increasing availability of observational data, advancements in data assimilation techniques, and the application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning. However, challenges remain, such as the inherent uncertainty of atmospheric systems, the lack of observational data in some regions, limitations in model accuracy and model scale transformation, and the complexity of ensemble prediction methods. In the future, by overcoming these challenges, medium-range weather forecasts are expected to play a more significant role in improving the accuracy of flood forecasts, providing more effective support for preventing and mitigating flood disasters.

Key words: medium-range weather forecast, flood forecasting, ensemble forecast system, numerical weather forecast

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